How can you predict when a crime is going to happen?
Human behavior isn’t the first thing that comes to mind when you’re looking at a math problem, but it is for a tactical analyst. Tactical analysts must use math skills to predict when the next event will happen in a crime series as well as identify it and figure out a positive approach to a solution.
The name of this process is called crime forecasting, or temporal analysis, and it can be done within the probabilities of occurrence ranging between 68 percent, 95 percent and 99.7 percent accuracy. The higher the percent, the higher your accuracy in predicting what time something is going to happen because it covers more days.
Even though the chance of making a mistake is higher in the 68 percent probability, it is still a timeframe you must focus on. In reality, many agencies cannot afford the extra manpower and time to an issue that spans over the course of many days and will focus on a smaller time frame – which is where the 68 percent probability comes into play.
Math is a great starting point in trying to figure out a crime series, but you must always factor in the possibility that someone will change their behavior or steer away from their normal routine. This can put a sudden halt to your investigation. The motives behind a person’s change in pattern are numerous – from getting sick to moving – and must be taken into account.
Remember no one can predict everything an offender is going to do – you’re only human. However, if an offender sticks to their pattern, your detailed analysis will make you a hero when officers get their guy.
This course will improve your ability to describe the elements examined during a temporal analysis, explain the steps taken to predict when the next crime will happen within an identified crime series and outline some of the challenges involved in crime forecasting.